The crowd went into the FOMC long bonds, short stocks, long dollar — and got squeezed. The pain trade was up: equities and bonds rallied, the VIX collapsed, and the coiled cocoa short detonated +6.5%. The dollar long is fading. Now: ride the squeeze winners, sell only the glut-backed shorts on rallies.
Every market as a share of its own 1-year positioning extreme, as of the Tue 9-Jun COT close. Green = the crowd was long; red = short. It read green at the top (record-long duration) and red at the bottom-right (short equities, long dollar) — and the next four days squeezed exactly the red side. Hover any tile for the current call.
Signed mean rel-to-max by class. The whole book leaned one way into the FOMC — long duration, short equities, long dollar — so the relief rally squeezed it. The pain trade was up.
The COT positioning covers through Tue 9-Jun (released Friday). Price action since — pulled live from TradingView, through the 16–17 Jun FOMC — went the other way: a broad risk-on relief rally squeezed the crowd. That changes several calls.
A hawkish-Fed, strong-dollar margin-call drove the crowd long bonds, short stocks, long dollar — silver −13.7%, S&P −4%, yields up, VIX to 22, the dollar +$11.3bn. That is the snapshot the heatmap shows.
| Asset | Now | Trend | RSI(14) | Vol ATR% | TV rating | Since the COT close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,511 | ▲ up | 57 | 1.3% | Buy | Recovered into an UPTREND (above the 200-day 6,892) — record shorts squeezed up. Rated Buy; don’t short it. |
| Nasdaq-100 | 29,968 | ▲ up | 56 | 2.1% | Buy | Back above its averages; Buy-rated. |
| Russell 2000 | 2,939 | ▲ up | 58 | 1.9% | Buy | Small caps joined — Buy; broad risk-on. |
| VIX | 16.4 | ▼ down | 45 | 12% | Sell | Collapsed from the ~22 CPI peak; rated Sell (vol falling) = calm. Green. |
| US 10Y yield | 4.44% | ▼ down | — | — | — | FELL from ~4.53% — Asset-Mgr duration longs vindicated; no hawkish shock. |
| US 30Y yield | 4.93% | ▼ down | — | — | — | Back below 5.0% — the “30Y > 5%” systemic trigger did NOT fire. |
| DXY (dollar) | 99.5 | ▬ flat | 53 | 0.4% | Buy | Eased but still above the 200-day (98.7) & Buy-rated — the long is STALLING, not reversing. Watch 98.7. |
| USD/CAD | 1.3997 | ▲ up | 77 | 0.4% | Buy | STRONG uptrend (ADX 39, Buy) but RSI 77 overbought — don’t chase; add on dips to ~1.392. |
| NZD/USD | 0.5830 | ▬ flat | 46 | 0.9% | Sell | At its 200-day, rated Sell — the ▸short is armed; trigger = a break below ~0.578. |
| USD/JPY | 160.4 | ▬ flat | 61 | 0.4% | Buy | Pinned (ADX 12, ranging), Buy-rated — don’t pre-position the short into ~160. |
| Cocoa | $4,232 | ▲ up | 60 | 5.4% | Buy | Squeeze FIRED +6.5% — above the 20/50-day but BELOW the 200-day (4,889), ADX 13.6 weak = a tactical bounce, not a new bull. |
| WTI crude | $75.9 | ▼ down | 29 | 6.9% | Sell | Collapsed on the Hormuz peace; oversold, Sell-rated. Very volatile (ATR 6.9%). |
| Corn | $4.14 | ▼ down | 29 | 2.3% | Sell | STRONG downtrend (ADX 39, Sell) — high-conviction short, but oversold; sell the bounce to ~$4.37. |
| Coffee | 273.6c | ▲ up | 58 | 3.1% | Buy | Bounced +5.5% to Buy-rated — the fresh short is offside; wait for it to fail. |
| NatGas | $3.26 | ▲ up | 60 | 4.1% | Buy | Firm above its averages, Buy-rated — no short trigger. |
| Gold | $4,352 | ▼ down | 44 | 2.6% | Sell | Recovered but still below its averages & Sell-rated — the ▸long is genuinely conditional on a reclaim. |
| Copper | $6.49 | ▲ up | 56 | 2.5% | Buy | Above all its averages, Buy-rated — the scarcity long held; veto validated. |
| Live Cattle | 249.2 | ▲ up | 60 | 1.8% | Strong Buy | Above all averages, STRONG BUY — the scarcity hold paid. |
| Lean Hogs | 94.8 | ▼ down | 36 | 2.3% | Strong Sell | Still falling, STRONG SELL — the ▸long correctly waits for a cover-print. |
Split into LONG and SHORT, each sorted by conviction, updated for the post-FOMC tape. FX is the tradeable pair (e.g. LONG USD/CAD). Levels are TradingView 20/50/200-day SMAs + RSI/ATR as of 17 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).
| Trade | Conv. | Thesis (with the post-print + technical read) | Trigger / entry — incl. level | Timeframe / exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG Cocoa | ★★★ 6.5 | The coiled max-short squeeze FIRED — +6.5% to $4,232 (~+14% off the lows), above the 20/50-day, RSI 60. But it’s a TACTICAL bounce: still below the 200-day ($4,889), ADX 13.6 (weak trend), glut caps it. | Hold longs; add on dips that hold above the breakout (~$3,950). Don’t marry it. | Squeeze, not a bull market. Take profit into vertical spikes; trail under the breakout. |
| LONG USD/CAD | ★★½ 4.5 | STRONG uptrend — ADX 39, Buy-rated, above all its averages. RSI 77 is “overbought”, but in an ADX-39 trend that’s normal, not a sell. | Don’t chase the spike. LONG on a pullback that holds ~1.392 (the SMA20 zone). | Rides the dollar trend. Stop below 1.392; the risk is a DXY break below its 200-day (98.7). |
| HOLD LONG Copper | ★★ 3.9 | Scarcity long VALIDATED — recovered to $6.49, above all its averages (incl. the 200-day $5.60), Buy-rated. The flush shook weak hands. | Hold longs; no fresh entry (extended). Short still banned. | Structural; trail. The 30-Jun US tariff decision is the next catalyst. |
| HOLD LONG Live Cattle | ★★ 3.8 | Scarcity long VALIDATED — 249.2, above all averages, STRONG BUY, near highs. Held flat through the flush, then rose. | Hold longs; short banned (75-yr-low herd). | Structural; trail. |
| ▸ LONG Gold | ★½ 3.5 | A yields/USD trade. Yields FELL post-FOMC → gold recovered to $4,352, but still below the 20/50-day & rated Sell — technically not confirmed yet. | ▸ LONG on a reclaim of the SMA20 ~$4,420 (confirms the dovish-yields / soft-dollar tailwind). PBoC keeps buying. | Conditional on yields/USD staying soft. |
| HOLD LONG Soybean Oil | ★ 3.0 | The biofuel-mandate long broke below the 20/50-day ($72.9, RSI 42) — but the bigger uptrend holds (well above the 200-day $59). | Hold ONLY above the 200-day; no adds. CLOSE below ~$72 / the SMA50. | Tight — short-term trend broke, long-term intact. |
| ▸ LONG Lean Hogs | ★ 2.5 | Max short but price STILL FALLING (94.8, below the 20/50-day, RSI 36, STRONG SELL) — the shorts are still right (glut). | ▸ LONG only on a cover-print + a reclaim of the SMA20 ~99.4. Not yet. | Wait; no position until the turn. |
| Trade | Conv. | Thesis (with the post-print + technical read) | Trigger / entry — incl. level | Timeframe / exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT Corn | ★★★ 6.5 | Record new short crowd (+92,863), glut-backed, full runway — and a STRONG downtrend confirms it (ADX 39, Sell-rated, below all averages). But RSI 28.8, oversold at $4.14. | SHORT a rally toward the SMA20 ~$4.37 — do NOT chase the low (oversold). | Weeks. Stop ~1.5× ATR (≈$0.14) above entry. Kill-switch: a weather scare, or a close above ~$4.52 (SMA50). |
| SHORT Sugar | ★★★ 6.0 | Short crowd building (+15,277), Brazil surplus. Below all averages, Sell-rated, RSI 39 — trend down, not yet oversold. | SHORT a rally toward ~14.2 (SMA20) or a fresh lower-low. | Open-ended. Stop above the recent lower-high (~1.5× ATR). |
| HOLD SHORT Soybeans | ★★ 4.5 | Existing short worked; fuel mostly spent. Bouncing (+2.4% to $11.47) but still below the SMA20 ($11.57) — the bounce is the risk. | Already on. Trail tight under the bounce. | CLOSE on a close back above the SMA20 / a soy-oil-led reclaim. |
| HOLD SHORT Wheat · CBOT | ★★ 4.0 | Existing short worked; world supply ample. Bouncing ($6.04) but below the SMA20 ($6.10), RSI 48. | Already on. Trail. | CLOSE above the pivot. Deep crowd (71%) = squeeze-tail risk. |
| ▸ SHORT NZD/USD | ★½ 3.5 | Resuming short with the dollar; Sell-rated, sitting on its 200-day. But UNCONFIRMED: 0.5830, flat, RSI 46, no break. | ▸ SHORT on a break below ~0.578 (the weekly low / under the 200-day). | With the dollar; CLOSE if DXY breaks its 200-day (98.7). |
| ▸ SHORT USD/JPY | ★½ 3.0 | Record-short JPY = the biggest coiled spring (the trade is SHORT USD/JPY = long yen). But pinned 160.4, ADX 12 (ranging), Buy-rated — no trigger. | ▸ SHORT USD/JPY only on a risk-off shock or a BoJ/MoF move. Do NOT pre-position into ~160 intervention risk. | Event-driven; violent when it goes. |
| ▸ SHORT NatGas | ★½ 2.9 | Squeeze dead, glut, storage +6% — BUT price is firm ($3.26, above the 20/50-day, RSI 60, Buy-rated). No break. | ▸ SHORT only on a break below the base ~$3.05–3.10. No position while it’s above the averages. | Open-ended once it breaks. |
| ▸ SHORT GBP/USD | ★ 2.5 | Shorts re-loaded, trend down — but stuck at ~1.342 resistance (1.3426, RSI 50, ADX 15 = choppy, Neutral). | ▸ SHORT on a break below ~1.332 (the weekly low). | Pending the break. |
Honesty box. The defensive read paid where it counted — the scarcity longs (Copper, Cattle) recovered to Buy/Strong-Buy, Cocoa’s squeeze fired (+6.5%), and standing aside on oil avoided a long into an −11% collapse. The misses: the equity “fade into FOMC” lean was wrong (the squeeze ran), and the Coffee short is offside after a +5.5% bounce. Sell only glut-backed names on rallies; never chase an oversold low (Corn RSI 29).
Rates, equities and VIX — with the FOMC now behind us. Each is Now / Waiting for / If it fires, so “no trade” is never the end of the story: it tells you the exact trigger that would create one.
The relationships that mattered — updated for the relief rally. Each was adversarially stress-tested; the ones that broke are traps to avoid.
Saxo Managed Money, positioning to Tue 09 Jun 2026. Net = fund longs − shorts. Crowd & fuel = the spec net as % of its 1-yr extreme. Price Δ · to Tue = the COT-week (Tue→Tue) price move — NOT the move since (that, e.g. Cocoa’s +6.5% squeeze, is in the Read). Signal & read are current to 17 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).
| Contract | Net | Crowd & fuel | Flow (gross legs) | Price Δ · to Tue | Signal | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | ||||||
| WTI (CME) | 123,207 | LONG 69% | L −6,433 / S −5,381 | −5.9% | NO TRADE | Collapsed to $75.9 on the Hormuz peace; oversold (RSI 29). Stand aside. |
| Brent (ICE) | 208,891 | LONG 49% | L −27,004 / S +16,605 | −4.7% | NO TRADE | Oversold; war premium gone. |
| Gas Oil (ICE) | 53,804 | LONG 45% | both reducing | −3.8% | NO TRADE | Distillate ~6% below 5-yr avg = tight. No short. |
| RBOB Gasoline | 64,334 | LONG 64% ⚑ | L −1,980 / S +1,643 | −3.9% | NO TRADE | Crowded long; no edge. |
| NY Harbor ULSD | 9,605 | LONG 23% | L −195 / S +2,360 | −4.2% | ▸ LONG | ▸ LONG on a reclaim — diesel tight; long stopped on the flush. |
| NatGas (4c) | −28,955 | SHORT 70% | L +3,148 / S +16,211 | −0.9% | ▸ SHORT | ▸ SHORT on a break below ~$3.05 — firm at $3.26, Buy-rated, no trigger. |
| PRECIOUS METALS | ||||||
| Gold | 103,660 | LONG 61% ⚑ | L −3,462 / S +4,219 | −5.2% | ▸ LONG | ▸ LONG on a reclaim of ~$4,420 — recovered to $4,352, still below its averages. |
| Silver | 9,794 | LONG 20% | both reducing | −13.7% | NO TRADE | Crowd gone; below averages. |
| Platinum | 8,377 | LONG 41% | L −2,402 / S +1,195 | −11.9% | NO TRADE | 2026 deficit caps downside. |
| Palladium | −4,520 | SHORT 68% | S +1,030 | −11.7% | NO TRADE | Russian-duty squeeze risk. Don’t press. |
| HG Copper | 71,127 | LONG 92% ⚑ | L −4,103 / S +1,901 | −4.0% | HOLD LONG | Recovered above all averages ($6.49), Buy. Hold longs; short banned. |
| GRAINS & OILSEEDS | ||||||
| Soybeans | 90,756 | LONG 40% | L −45,422 / S +19,872 | −3.9% | HOLD SHORT | Bouncing to $11.47, below the SMA20. Trail, no adds. |
| Soybean Meal | 52,602 | LONG 39% | L −37,952 / S +36,516 | −4.3% | NO TRADE | Spent; below averages. |
| Soybean Oil | 131,436 | LONG 78% ⚑ | L −20,257 / S +4,740 | −3.7% | HOLD LONG | Broke the 20/50-day ($72.9) but above the 200-day — hold tight, close below ~$72. |
| Corn | −5,325 | SHORT 3% | L −27,544 / S +92,863 | −4.6% | SHORT | SHORT rallies to ~$4.37 — strong downtrend (ADX 39) but oversold at $4.14, don’t chase. |
| Wheat (CBOT) | −79,407 | SHORT 71% ⚑ | L −16,852 / S +4,684 | −3.2% | HOLD SHORT | Bouncing ($6.04), below the SMA20. Trail, no adds. |
| Wheat (KCBT) | −4,543 | SHORT 7% | L −6,053 / S +11,967 | −0.9% | NO TRADE | Tight HRW; crowd too small. |
| SOFTS | ||||||
| Sugar | −130,333 | SHORT 52% | L +7,448 / S +15,277 | −2.6% | SHORT | SHORT rallies to ~14.2 — below its averages, Sell-rated. |
| Cocoa (NYBOT) | −27,286 | SHORT 100% ⚑ | L −1,527 / S +4,648 | −6.5% | LONG | LONG (tactical) — fell −6.5% into the close, then SQUEEZED +6.5% since; above 20/50-day, below the 200-day. |
| Coffee (Arabica) | 3,132 | LONG 6% | L −3,660 / S +5,403 | −4.7% | NO TRADE | Stood down — bounced +5.5% to Buy-rated. Wait for it to fail. |
| Cotton | 42,204 | LONG 68% | L −7,669 / S +2,529 | ≈flat | NO TRADE | Mixed; no edge. |
| LIVESTOCK | ||||||
| Live Cattle | 109,002 | LONG 77% ⚑ | L −5,778 / S +184 | 0.0% | HOLD LONG | Above all averages, Strong Buy. Hold longs; short banned. |
| Feeder Cattle | 10,920 | LONG 29% | both trimming | +1.6% | HOLD LONG | Same scarcity. Hold longs. |
| Lean Hogs | −13,701 | SHORT 100% | L −2,239 / S +4,911 | −4.3% | ▸ LONG | ▸ LONG on a cover-print — still falling ($94.8), Strong Sell. Not yet. |
CFTC Legacy futures-only, Non-Commercial. Positioning is per currency; the Signal is the tradeable pair — so “short the yen” (specs short JPY) becomes ▸ SHORT USD/JPY = long the yen. No ambiguity.
| Ccy | Pair | Net | Δ Net | Rel | Wk Px Δ | Signal (the pair trade) | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR | EUR/USD | 13,932 | −34,934 | 8% | −0.7% | NO TRADE | Long gutted; now neutral. |
| CHF | USD/CHF | −36,665 | −3,756 | −83% | −1.3% | HOLD long USD/CHF | Carry short on CHF = long USD/CHF; firm, Buy. No adds. |
| GBP | GBP/USD | −64,213 | −11,995 | −69% | −0.5% | ▸ SHORT GBP/USD | On a break below ~1.332; stuck at resistance now. |
| JPY | USD/JPY | −145,818 | −16,251 | −100% | −0.3% | ▸ SHORT USD/JPY | Short USD/JPY = LONG yen. On a risk shock / BoJ only; pinned 160.4. |
| CAD | USD/CAD | −119,999 | −25,888 | −75% | −0.6% | LONG USD/CAD | Short-CAD = long USD/CAD. Strong trend (ADX 39); add on dips, RSI 77. |
| AUD | AUD/USD | 18,160 | −23,652 | 21% | −1.7% | NO TRADE | Long flushed; risk dial soft, Sell-rated. |
| NZD | NZD/USD | −31,571 | −3,325 | −56% | −1.6% | ▸ SHORT NZD/USD | On a break below ~0.578; Sell-rated, at the 200-day. |
| MXN | USD/MXN | 63,801 | +9,144 | 58% | −0.6% | NO TRADE | Peso firm (USD/MXN 17.21). |
| USD | DXY basket | +$27.9bn | +$11.3bn | — | 99.5 | LONG USD | The master long (+$11.3bn). Stalling — above the 200-day (98.7) but fading. |
USD row = implied aggregate dollar position (−Σ of the others’ $bn): specs went net long $27.9bn vs the basket (+$11.3bn on the week) — now stalling (DXY 99.5, above its 200-day 98.7 but fading).
CFTC Traders-in-Financial-Futures. Rates read via Asset Managers (the Lev-Fund net is the basis trade). Equities/VIX via Leveraged Funds. “Now” = TradingView 17 Jun 2026 (post-FOMC).
| Contract | OI | AM net | Rel | Lev (basis) | Yield now | Signal | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UST 2Y | 4.3M | +1,879k | 72% | −1,681k | 4.04% | NO TRADE | Front-end eased post-FOMC — long vindicated. |
| UST 5Y | 6.2M | +2,930k | 76% | −2,230k | — | NO TRADE | Belly rallied; largest basis short on the curve. |
| UST 10Y | 5.3M | +2,413k | 98% | −1,980k | 4.44% | NO TRADE | Record long VINDICATED — yields fell. The flag stood down. |
| Ultra 10Y | 2.4M | +596k | 80% | −260k | — | NO TRADE | Long paid. |
| UST Bond | 1.9M | +479k | 81% | −282k | 4.93% | NO TRADE | 30Y back below 5.0% — trigger did not fire. |
| Ultra Bond | 2.4M | +1,139k | 95% | −935k | — | NO TRADE | Record long; the long end rallied. |
| Index | Lev net | Δ Lev | Rel | Now | Signal | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −460k | +44k | −91% | 7,511 | NO TRADE | Recovered into an uptrend, Buy-rated. No new short (▸short only on a roll-over). |
| Nasdaq-100 | −57k | +18k | −76% | 29,968 | NO TRADE | Recovered above its averages, Buy. |
| Russell 2000 | −74k | −1k | −64% | 2,939 | NO TRADE | Bears squeezed too — Buy-rated. |
| Dow (DJIA) | −9k | +5k | −34% | 52,141 | NO TRADE | Near highs. |
| MSCI EM | +68k | −15k | 39% | — | NO TRADE | Trimmed by the strong dollar. |
| Contract | Lev net | Dealer net | Rel | Now | Signal | Read (current) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | −35k | +59k | −33% | 16.4 | NO TRADE | Collapsed from ~22, rated Sell (vol falling) — short-vol wasn’t crowded and dealers stayed long gamma, so the FOMC passed without a vol event. Green. |